Zimbabwe: What's next?

The Context

Every week it seems the rate of inflation in Zimbabwe rises to another unimaginable figure. As of this month Zimbabwe now has the world's highest inflation rate at 15,000 % (fifteen thousand per cent).

As an article in the Times mentioned the phenomenon of "Mugabenomics" has delivered a three-headed monster — exponentially rising prices, a critical cash shortage, and virtually nothing to buy in the shops. A mixture of price controls and desperate shortage of goods has destroyed the retail trade.

Unemployment is estimated to be over 80%. Fuel is in short supply and too expensive to buy. Water shortages are common and power cuts the daily norm Mugabe has recently made economic decrees that have made it impossible for retailers and wholesalers to buy stocks and sell them at a profit (thus enabling them to buy more produce to sell). Life expectancy for men and women is in the mid-30s. HIV/AIDS are rife.

Mugabe remains in power and shows no sign of relinquishing control  - who has already been selected by Zanu PF's central committee as the Party's candidate for Presidential elections, is set to be formally endorsed as ZANU PF's election candidate at the party's December special congress in Harare.

Meanwhile according to online reports from ZANU PF has set aside Z$4.4 trillion (US$367 million) -  enough to meet the whole country's fuel needs for a month -  for the printing of election campaign material for Mugabe for next March's elections. The money will be spent printing T-shirts with the president's portrait, party flags and bandanas to be distributed to people.

Politically both Zanu PF and the MDC are deeply divided, with their being at least 4 factions vying for their particular analysis, within the parties. Whilst in Harare there is a hope that Mugabe will take a step away from direct control and become an honorary president (puppet or otherwise) in Bulaweyo the view is more practical: Mugabe's mother was aged over 100 when she died, Mugabe is  84 and will never come out of office for fear of prosecution after he loses his immunity. Why would he go ?

Alongside starvation and a lack of basic medial supplies, the human rights situation in the country has continued to deteriorate in a context of escalating poverty. Freedom of expression, assembly and association continue to be curtailed. Hundreds of people have been arrested for participating or attempting to organise peaceful protests. The government has continued to obstruct humanitarian efforts of emergency shelters and food aid by the UN and by local/international non-government organisations.

Our own Government and others continue to rely on Thabo Mbeki and the efforts of SADaC – the South African Development Community  - to bring about change. The news last week that the Zimbabwean Government has published a draft Bill to reform electoral laws as a result of an agreement between Zanu PF and the MDC is a small sign of hope, and whilst it may well be passed by the Zanu PF majority in parliament, there is little expectation on the ground that it will lead to free and fair elections.

At a time when Zanu Pf's youth wing – the Green Bombers – continue to terrorise and intimidate MDC supporters, there are few who think a new bill on electoral reform will change the tactics or strategy of Mugabe,

Current Action

Whilst the Church is involved in providing support to the people of Zimbabwe through a number of avenues, the problems on the ground make information gathering and relief projects extremely difficult.

In the hyper inflationary environment the difficulties for the most basic of relief efforts are manifold:  without no fuel, food can't be moved in or distributed out, there is little effective way of moving around large loads without gaining the attention of the authorities, at which point the climate of fear becomes a stark reality.

The climate of fear and political terror is all pervasive. The bringing down of Archbishop Pius Ncube who had access to international support and resources has been felt deeply within Zimbabawe.  There is no Anglican bishop with the support structure of Archbishop Pius and if the Church is to remain in a position to provide relief as the situation spirals even further downwards, it requires wisdom as well as courage.

In some parts of the country, through sheer desperation, members different Christian Churches movement got too closely aligned with MDC and have become too closely aligned as to even appear impartial. In a desire to forge some middle ground and get rid of dictatorship, some have thought in the past that the only option was tio throw in their lot with the MDC.

Others have kept their head down and are beginning to take their place in the emerging middle ground that has developed as [people increasingly realise that it will take more than one man, Be it Morgan Tzanagri, to be save Zimbabwe. The removal of Mugabe will not usher in the 'new age' of democracy. All depends on the succession and how it comes about (not only when it comes about). There is no apparent alternative leader within the divided opposition movement. The possibility of civil war based on tribal identity remains a real one.

The Diocese of Southwark has a long link with the Church in Zimbabwe and has been working hard with established relations to support those trying to alleviate suffering across the country through Church structures, such as youth groups, the Mothers Union and the work of individual clergy. The Diocese of Southwark is uniquely involved in Zimbabwe through its Episcopal Area links with three of the Dioceses in Zimbabwe. Relationships with bishops, clergy and lay people there allow us to gain immediate, honest and genuine information of the situation in the country and shed particular light on other reports emanating from the internet or media

Whilst DfID has previously been unwilling to work with or through the Anglican churches in Zimbabwe because of the apparent weakness of the bishops/churches in the face of Mugabe's threats, this is now changing.

A project mediated through Lambeth Palace and USPG is now being initiated in the Diocese of Central Zimbabwe. Christian Aid and TearFund are also engaged in relief work. This should not be confused with the other long-tern necessary support work for the churches with which we are linked. (Aid agencies such as Christian Aid know themselves to be compromised and to have Mugabe spies (CIO) among their numbers. They work on despite this.) USPG continues to be active in the country.

The Future

In September of this year I wrote that Zimbabwe cannot any more be seen as an African problem needing an African solution – it is a humanitarian disaster. Anyone who saw the dramatic reports by Sue Lloyd Roberts on the BBC or the reports from Zimbabwe the following week by Mark Austin could not come to any other conclusion.

The Prime Minister responded with an announcement that he would not sit down with President Mugabe at any EU summit, which is fine as far as it goes but in my humble view does not go far enough.

It remains my belief that the time for "African solutions" alone is now over. Despite his best efforts, President Mbeki has failed to help the people of Zimbabwe. SADaC has achieved precious little over many months. Thabo Mbeki has been at best ineffective in his efforts to advise, cajole and persuade Robert Mugabe that it is time for him to stand down or reverse his unjust and brutal regime. At worst Thabo Mbeki stands offering the other cheek in a complicit failing to lead the charge against a neighbour who previously provided shelter and succour to members of the ANC in exile.

The relationship between Mbeki and Mugabe goes too deep and too far to expect that Mbeki would do anything against Mugabe's will, especially when the cream of Zimbabwe's institutions, its teachers, lawyers and engineers flee to South Africa and enrich the South African economy with their skills.   

Like Amin before him in Uganda, Mugabe has rallied a country against its former colonial master only to destroy it through a dictatorial fervour which has brought the country to its knees. Enemies are tortured, the press are censored, the people are starving and meanwhile the world waits for South Africa to intervene. That time is now over.

There are some who say that by getting involved Britain only gives succour to Mugabe's charge of neo-colonialism. With respect to those who offer such analyses, my own view is that it is utter nonsense. Mugabe is the worst kind of racist dictator and Britain needs to escape from its colonialist guilt when it comes to Zimbabwe. Whilst Mugabe may well brand Gordon Brown a "colonialist" or "imperialist" for any action he takes, the people of Zimbabwe look to us, and to others, to heed the cries of their suffering and the voices of our own conscience.

Zimbabwe must not be allowed to slide out of public consciousness. Questions in both houses need to be asked to encourage the Government to respond to the daily suffering of the people of Zimbabwe.

In terms of sanctions the British government and the EU need to do more to close down the loop holes available to those in diplomatic missions. The extending of new, strict sanctions to diplomatic missions so as to circumvent sanctions in other forms needs to be considered and implemented so as to remove from the Mugabe dictatorship a potential route for currency, diamonds, precious stones and other forms of moving currency.

As someone who went on countless marches to campaign for the ending of Ian Smith's UDI and apartheid in South Africa, I am longing for the time when Britain can lead the world once again in a moral campaign on behalf of millions of ordinary people.